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Old 03-29-2020, 05:27 PM   #51
.brian.
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Originally Posted by wildnuts View Post
I do 20 or more.

Depending on where you live it helps either just the workers or reduces how much the restaurant owners have to pay them. And both are likely at risk of suffering or closing. Imagine it really sucks for the few new restaurants that had planned to open around this time period I see around town.
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Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
From 20-66% depending on the joint.
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Originally Posted by mac35 View Post
For takeout I'm doing what I normally would, assuming they aren't total dicks on the phone or when I get there. Had $55-ish total a couple nights ago and left $11ish.
Thanks fellas. Even though I made the wife go pick it up Told her to leave $10 on a $47 bill before I got a chance to read your replies.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:30 PM   #52
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@tcs007

Pretty much what I am expecting to be doing.


Distance!
Distance!
Distance less!
Distance less!
Oh ****! Distance!
Distance

<repeat>
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:41 PM   #53
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Friend of mine opened her doors to her little boutique a week before the SIP orders started happening.
Ouch. Bad timing.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:55 PM   #54
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Done.
Thank you very much sir. (tips hat)

200,000 dead is assuming an infected pool of 20,000,000-40,000,000 or 6-12% of the population.

I would hazard a guess that 12% would be at the low end of the likely round one infection rate. I base this pronouncement on nearly nothing and am really fishing for an answer on this subject from someone more knowledgeable, but it does somewhat comport with round one of the 1918 pandemic and depends on a summer hiatus of the disease.

Of course then there would be the fall winter comeback when the rest of the 60-70% of the population that needs to get it to attain herd immunity gets it.

So, another 500,000-1,000,000 in the fall?*




*These are guesstimates, I am not an epidemiologist, I don't even play one on TV, I did not stay in a holiday in last night, I did take a couple graduate level epidemiology classes though because the statistics are similar to a lot of the biologically driven climate phenomena, and because I found it interesting, but that was some time ago.


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Originally Posted by wildnuts View Post
Amazing how the best strategy for most people in this scenario is to just stay at home and desensitize to what's happening via work and/or entertainment. If one really tried to look deeply into this and keep track of what is happening, they'd likely just feel powerless from not being able to do anything and/or feel immense sorrow at the inevitable and continuing loss of life. And those feelings just wouldn't do the average person any good.

On the flip side, being completely oblivious to it results in ******** like this doing **** that will get people sick:

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/h...c-68ecb7dc3156
I have a PhD in that, the looking deeply into something and being powerless thing. It can be quite frustrating, but for me it is better than not knowing why what what is happening around me is happening.

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Covid-19 related but too scared to create a new thread...

How much are you guys tipping when ordering from normal "eat in" places that are doing curbside pickup now? The standard 20% still? Thanks much.
20+, these people are hurting too.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:01 PM   #55
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Yeah, I'm trying to do local place take out a couple times a week, and tipping nicely.
Not sure if that really fits the social distancing (curbside is better than eat it, but staying home would be even better), but people are suffering financially and I'm still getting paid.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:08 PM   #56
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A reasonably conservative estimate IMHO.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:11 PM   #57
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A reasonably conservative estimate IMHO.
Best to start off conservative and then increase the numbers slowly.

Give people time to digest what is happening.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:16 PM   #58
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the hospital capacity is critical, 3% could go to 15-20% death rate quickly if beds/ventilators are unavailable

what's the lates on herd immunity? last I saw it was a 50-75% range? damn, second wave almost guaranteed ????

I dunno what numbers to pay attention to anymore.

was off a week, going to work tomorrow. been nice knowing y'all...
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:22 PM   #59
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I'm predicting that we'll be told to keep up social distancing for the next year as they develop a vaccine.

And then in the next breath told to go back to work. Where the cycle will start anew.
Excuse you but I have a music festival to attend in Sept.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:34 PM   #60
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I will not be surorised if 1M Americans are dead in one year from this.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:45 PM   #61
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Excuse you but I have a music festival to attend in Sept.
For Christmas I got my mom 2 Celine Dion concert tickets. She’s been wanting to see her since I can remember and my mom never does anything for herself. The tickets were roughly $1k a piece and was supposed to happen in 3rd week of March. Concert was canceled, still unsure if the concert so happen or if I get my money back.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:49 PM   #62
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Tell me about it! A band was supposed to come down here in January/February but had to cancel last minute due to "a family emergency". We got lucky that they actually rescheduled for the end of May rather than canceled outright. Basically 0% chance this second date happens. Granted, tickets were $30, but still.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:53 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by .brian. View Post
Thanks fellas. Even though I made the wife go pick it up Told her to leave $10 on a $47 bill before I got a chance to read your replies.
whered ya go..laspadas?
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:55 PM   #64
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Excuse you but I have a music festival to attend in Sept.
Nobody is stopping you from going. Yet.

But I have a feeling you'd be there with maybe 10 other people.

And the only musical act is a guy who kind of knows how to play acoustic guitar.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:56 PM   #65
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And the only musical act is a guy who kind of knows how to play acoustic guitar.
they havent asked me yet!
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:03 PM   #66
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Nobody is stopping you from going. Yet.

But I have a feeling you'd be there with maybe 10 other people.

And the only musical act is a guy who kind of knows how to play acoustic guitar.
A youth pastor at the local church......
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:12 PM   #67
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A youth pastor at the local church......
All I can think if is Pastor Glenn from Letterkenny playing his didgeridoo .
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:16 PM   #68
masskillingspree
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Nobody is stopping you from going. Yet.

But I have a feeling you'd be there with maybe 10 other people.

And the only musical act is a guy who kind of knows how to play acoustic guitar.
Andrew WK is playing the first night. He can party the virus to death.
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:38 PM   #69
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Trump extending the "social distancing" to April 30th. I'm anticipating Utah goes shelter in place the Monday after Easter.
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:39 PM   #70
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Trump extending the “social distancing” to April 30th. I’m anticipating Utah goes shelter in place the Monday after Easter.


Summit did it Friday. Has SLC county not yet?

With all the temples closed, is there a reason to go outside?
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:49 PM   #71
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Dow futures down almost 2% since the announcement, somuch for the rally
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:51 PM   #72
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Dow futures down almost 2% since the announcement, somuch for the rally
CNN is reporting over 4% down.
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:53 PM   #73
.brian.
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Not sure if that really fits the social distancing (curbside is better than eat it, but staying home would be even better), but people are suffering financially and I'm still getting paid.
Yea, I am with you. But you still need to go to the grocery store to get food to cook at home. So might as well go out, do the curbside deal, and help small local places.

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whered ya go..laspadas?
Yesterday did Romano's and Double Decker. Today did New American Bistro.

Really want to try Wolf's Superior Sandwiches at some point. Also want to try Fainting Goat.
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Old 03-29-2020, 08:00 PM   #74
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200,000 dead is assuming an infected pool of 20,000,000-40,000,000 or 6-12% of the population.

I would hazard a guess that 12% would be at the low end of the likely round one infection rate. I base this pronouncement on nearly nothing and am really fishing for an answer on this subject from someone more knowledgeable, but it does somewhat comport with round one of the 1918 pandemic and depends on a summer hiatus of the disease.
2009 H1N1 is probably a reasonable upper bound, at least for the first wave.
Similar infectivity and mode of transmission, both respiratory viruses. We know more than in 1918, and have much better basic life support. This will make a difference, until/unless the ICUs are overwhelmed.

We can reasonably hope this will be measurably lower in cases than 2009-10 due to social distancing, which will increase when the fear kicks in. Virtually no one made actual lifestyle changes for 2009 pH1N1.

Basically, a long winded way of saying that the projection Fauci is working from is entirely reasonable, and where is be thinking right now.
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Amazing how the best strategy for most people in this scenario is to just stay at home and desensitize to what's happening via work and/or entertainment.
As I heard someone say, "Now is your chance to save the world by staying home and watching Netflix. Don't **** it up!

That's true for 90% of the non-healthcare, non-public health worker population.

Last edited by ForceFed4; 03-29-2020 at 08:05 PM.
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Old 03-29-2020, 08:10 PM   #75
godfather2112
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Summit did it Friday. Has SLC county not yet?

With all the temples closed, is there a reason to go outside?
Lol, not much going on. You did have 1,600 missionaries return home last week and of course the airport was packed to the gills with families. The airport did finally set rules that only 1 car per missionary allowed and must wait outside.

People are still doing stuff, families are still gathering. People here aren’t taking it serious, sadly.
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