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Old 03-29-2020, 03:17 PM   #26
junebugfareast
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Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
Wonder how it looks 28 days later?

Pretty simple. Assume no useful action from many governments and let e^n run his model. In the grand scheme of things, this is much easier to model than climate.

One of the many sad things about this pandemic is how predictable it was once the seeds were spread around the world.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:33 PM   #27
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...034_story.html

No comment.

Quote:

On Feb. 5, with fewer than a dozen confirmed novel coronavirus cases in the United States but tens of thousands around the globe, a shouting match broke out in the White House Situation Room between Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and an Office of Management and Budget official, according to three people aware of the outburst.

Azar had asked OMB that morning for $2 billion to buy respirator masks and other supplies for a depleted federal stockpile of emergency medical equipment, according to individuals familiar with the request, who spoke on the condition of anonymity about internal discussions.

The previously unreported argument turned on the request and on the budget official’s accusation that Azar had improperly lobbied Capitol Hill for money for the repository, which Azar denied, the individuals said.

The $2 billion request from HHS was cut to $500 million when the White House eventually sent Congress a supplemental budget request weeks later.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:37 PM   #28
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"No comment" is actually a comment. It's like those people that type an explanation about how they are posting a photo with no explanation.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:40 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by junebugfareast View Post
Pretty simple. Assume no useful action from many governments and let e^n run his model. In the grand scheme of things, this is much easier to model than climate.

One of the many sad things about this pandemic is how predictable it was once the seeds were spread around the world.
:facepalm:
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:48 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by junebugfareast View Post
Pretty simple. Assume no useful action from many governments and let e^n run his model. In the grand scheme of things, this is much easier to model than climate.

One of the many sad things about this pandemic is how predictable it was once the seeds were spread around the world.
Looking at the broader behavior is trivial, to do a better job you need to model the hotspots and model their behavior individually, then regionally bin regions based on their current behavior and then cram them back together to get a national picture.

It is easy but tedious and right now I am teaching my second grader multiplication.

Huh, I could probably get my 12yo working on the hotspots and possibly bining states based on certain criteria, date of first death/10th death and how fast it is moving.

In school she was doing genetics and has been continuing this at home, they do some some interesting stuff in her TAG class, she knows more about crisper than I do, but that is not my area so I think I will teach her excell and how to make graphs.

If I catch her imagination this will be a breeze, if not and she wants to do something else it will be impossible. Given that she is still sick and just coming out of the tunnel it will be a crap shoot as to which child I get, the excited one or the one that rolls her eyes back into her head so hard that you can hear it from the other room.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:53 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boardoholic View Post
Though it's already 10 days old, here's the follow-up to the March 10 article that's linked up top:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

Like the last one, it's a fairly lengthy but great read. So I'll copypasta his conclusion.
At this point you just have to assume EVERYONE else but you and your immediate household has the virus and treat everyone accordingly.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:56 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
Wonder how it looks 28 days later?

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Old 03-29-2020, 03:58 PM   #33
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you can create a deaths per million pop chart here; https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

dunno where to get a hospitalizations per pop graph...
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:06 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Thumper23 View Post

As apparently some people don’t understand their zombie movie references here is the joke laid out so as to be unfunny

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/28_days_later
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:08 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
As apparently some people don’t understand their zombie movie references here is the joke laid out so as to be unfunny

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/28_days_later
I'm willing to be everyone here already understood the reference.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:14 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by chapstien View Post
"No comment" is actually a comment. It's like those people that type an explanation about how they are posting a photo with no explanation.
.....
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:15 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balantz
So unless you're removing intubation from someone and something goes wrong, you don't need to worry about this being an airborne virus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NSFW
A choir group had 60 people show up for practice. Now 45 are sick.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balantz
Traveling a few feet from a cough =\= being carried a mile by a breeze. Don't conflate the two and claim this make it "airborne."
Could you possibly move those goalposts any further?
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:16 PM   #38
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Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus
Quote:
The nation's leading expert on infectious diseases and member of the White House's coronavirus task force says the pandemic could kill 100,000 to 200,000 Americans and infect millions.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said based on modeling of the current pace of the coronavirus' spread in the U.S., "between 100,000 and 200,000" people may die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

Fauci's comments on CNN's State of the Union underscore just how far away the U.S. is from the peak of the outbreak based on predictions from top federal officials. As of early Sunday afternoon, there were 125,000 cases in the U.S. and nearly 2,200 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Public health experts say that because of undocumented chains of transmission in many parts of the country, the number of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is set to keep surging as more and more test results become known.

Fauci said the 100,000-to-200,000 death figure is a middle-of-the-road estimate, much lower than worse-case-scenario predictions.

He said preparing for 1 million to 2 million Americans to die from the coronavirus is "almost certainly off the chart," adding: "Now it's not impossible, but very, very unlikely."

However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."

What we do know, he says, is that "we've got a serious problem in New York, we've got a serious problem in New Orleans and we're going to have serious problems in other areas."

Fauci's coronavirus fatality estimate comes as the White House considers ways to reopen the economy, including easing social distancing guidelines that officials have set forth to curb the spread of the fast-moving virus.

One in three Americans is now being asked to stay indoors as new cases soar, especially in New York, which accounts for nearly half of the country's cases.

When asked if it is the right time to begin relaxing some of the social distancing measures, Fauci said not until the curve of new infections starts flattening out.

He refused to guess when exactly that may occur.

"The virus itself determines that timetable," Fauci said.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the seasonal flu has killed between 12,000 and 61,000 people a year since 2010. The coronavirus death rate is far greater than the flu's. For the elderly population, the coronavirus has been found to be six times as deadly.

There is currently no vaccine for the coronavirus. Experts say developing a vaccine for the virus could take at least a year.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:21 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
As apparently some people don't understand their zombie movie references here is the joke laid out so as to be unfunny

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/28_days_later
I'm more interested in what will happen 28 weeks later.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:23 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1 Lucky Texan View Post
you can create a deaths per million pop chart here; https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

dunno where to get a hospitalizations per pop graph...
Godfather, add this^^ link to the list a the top please, name it ourworldindata if you would.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:23 PM   #41
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Amazing how the best strategy for most people in this scenario is to just stay at home and desensitize to what's happening via work and/or entertainment. If one really tried to look deeply into this and keep track of what is happening, they'd likely just feel powerless from not being able to do anything and/or feel immense sorrow at the inevitable and continuing loss of life. And those feelings just wouldn't do the average person any good.

On the flip side, being completely oblivious to it results in ******** like this doing **** that will get people sick:

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/police-charles-county-man-arrested-for-violating-the-no-more-than-ten-people-order/65-cd5ca066-099f-4562-a44c-68ecb7dc3156
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:23 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samagon View Post
I'm more interested in what will happen 28 weeks later.


Ptew ptew

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Old 03-29-2020, 04:26 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by etothen View Post
Godfather, add this^^ link to the list a the top please, name it ourworldindata if you would.
Done.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:34 PM   #44
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Sounds about right. Probably 1-10 million dead worldwide.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:40 PM   #45
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Covid-19 related but too scared to create a new thread...

How much are you guys tipping when ordering from normal "eat in" places that are doing curbside pickup now? The standard 20% still? Thanks much.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:04 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by .brian. View Post
Covid-19 related but too scared to create a new thread...

How much are you guys tipping when ordering from normal "eat in" places that are doing curbside pickup now? The standard 20% still? Thanks much.
I do 20 or more.

Depending on where you live it helps either just the workers or reduces how much the restaurant owners have to pay them. And both are likely at risk of suffering or closing. Imagine it really sucks for the few new restaurants that had planned to open around this time period I see around town.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:07 PM   #47
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Default Covid-19 Thread Part 2: Rona's Revenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by .brian. View Post
Covid-19 related but too scared to create a new thread...

How much are you guys tipping when ordering from normal "eat in" places that are doing curbside pickup now? The standard 20% still? Thanks much.

From 20-66% depending on the joint.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:08 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by .brian. View Post
Covid-19 related but too scared to create a new thread...

How much are you guys tipping when ordering from normal "eat in" places that are doing curbside pickup now? The standard 20% still? Thanks much.
For takeout I'm doing what I normally would, assuming they aren't total dicks on the phone or when I get there. Had $55-ish total a couple nights ago and left $11ish.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:20 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by samagon View Post
I'm more interested in what will happen 28 weeks later.
I'm predicting that we'll be told to keep up social distancing for the next year as they develop a vaccine.

And then in the next breath told to go back to work. Where the cycle will start anew.
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Old 03-29-2020, 05:23 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by wildnuts View Post
I do 20 or more.

Depending on where you live it helps either just the workers or reduces how much the restaurant owners have to pay them. And both are likely at risk of suffering or closing. Imagine it really sucks for the few new restaurants that had planned to open around this time period I see around town.
Friend of mine opened her doors to her little boutique a week before the SIP orders started happening.
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