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09-21-2006, 03:50 PM | #1 | |
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Real Estate: Up! Up! Up! That's the only direction it goes
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09-21-2006, 04:33 PM | #2 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 70272
Join Date: Sep 2004
Chapter/Region:
MWSOC
Location: Chicago
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Here's your chance to buy a house. Just buy it and buy the put on the future and you're hedged.
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09-21-2006, 04:39 PM | #3 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 64219
Join Date: Jun 2004
Chapter/Region:
Tri-State
Location: NNJ + NESIC Interloper
Vehicle:2011 Outbackness 2008 Legacy NA Hellastock |
Yawn....again....
Bought almost a year ago at $375, NNJ outside NYC. Similar homes on my street have sold in the last 60 days for $425. For someone who can't afford the $600 median household price of Westchester, NYC, or Long Island, the area I live in represents a value. Location, location, location. |
09-21-2006, 04:48 PM | #4 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 33246
Join Date: Feb 2003
Chapter/Region:
NESIC
Location: Where ever I lay my hat is my
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09-21-2006, 04:51 PM | #5 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 22958
Join Date: Aug 2002
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SWIC
Location: Las Vegas
Vehicle:2017 Forester 2.5 Li Silver |
Stock investors are a terrible meter for market direction. Look what happens to oil futures every time someone spits across a border in the mideast. Stock investors are panicking even worse than you are, that's all.
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09-21-2006, 05:03 PM | #6 | |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 34474
Join Date: Mar 2003
Chapter/Region:
NESIC
Location: N. Kingstown RI
Vehicle:2oo4 WRX PSM Sedan 2oo3 MINI cooper RED/WHT |
Quote:
Rent in 1 year: $10,800 Lived in house for 2 years, so that means we saved 21,600, but if we lost the 8.2% we'd "lose" $21,730... Again, that's worst case, IF we were to sell which we aren't... Yes I know another %6 for commissions would come out of that too. |
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09-21-2006, 05:06 PM | #7 | ||
Scooby Newbie
Member#: 8490
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: LA
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Quote:
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Interest on your mortgage payment = throwing your $ away to the bank. So, tell me, how much did you throw away to the bank in 2 years? |
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09-21-2006, 05:10 PM | #8 | |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 22958
Join Date: Aug 2002
Chapter/Region:
SWIC
Location: Las Vegas
Vehicle:2017 Forester 2.5 Li Silver |
Quote:
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09-21-2006, 05:13 PM | #9 | |
Scooby Guru
Member#: 22825
Join Date: Aug 2002
Chapter/Region:
NWIC
Location: Seattle, WA
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Double yawn....
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09-21-2006, 05:14 PM | #10 | |
Scooby Newbie
Member#: 8490
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: LA
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How's this for data: I was considering buying a 1500sq-ft town house 5-10 min from the beach in one of the more up scale place in San Diego. At the time, beginning of this year, it was selling for $570k by the builder. Now, there are still plenty of models available and a coworker of my fiance just bought the exact same plan I was gonna buy for $465k with $30k in free upgrade, $5k in closing cost. Yeah, to me, waiting 9 months saved me over $100k. Who knows what the next 9 months bring. Just noticed you're from San Diego, so the area I'm talking about is Carmel Valley. The development is Airoso. Last edited by asianautica; 09-21-2006 at 05:20 PM. |
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09-21-2006, 05:20 PM | #11 |
Scooby Newbie
Member#: 13772
Join Date: Dec 2001
Chapter/Region:
RMIC
Location: -=OT SQUIRREL HERDER=-
Vehicle:16 Frontier Red |
benjaminetanyahoo - thanks for the title. We've never heard you say that before!
And as always the only people in trouble here are: interest only loans ones who planned to flip a house/only live in one a couple years. In the long run people are still making bank that bought a house from 2000-2004/early '05. If you bought your house in San Diego in '00 for $100 it was worth $249 in 05. And now it's only worth a piddly $230. Damn what a terrible investment. And in another year it may only be worth $212. Those poor bastards with their house appreciating over 100% in 7 years. |
09-21-2006, 05:24 PM | #12 | |
Scooby Newbie
Member#: 8490
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: LA
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Ones who will get divorced and bought w/in the last 2 years, @ current 50% divorce rate, that's alot. Ones who pull equity out and buy fancy cars, boats or more houses. Ones who will lose their jobs and bought w/in the last 2 years. Ones who use ARM to buy more house than they can afford. etc. etc. etc. |
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09-21-2006, 05:36 PM | #13 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 33410
Join Date: Feb 2003
Chapter/Region:
Tri-State
Location: wishing i was somewhere else
Vehicle:08 wrx dgm |
^^ and people trying to break into their first home.
No decent houses for <$400k in decent neighborhoods. you need 20% down and that still leaves you with $2,022 /month at 6.5% BEFORE taxes and utilities. a couple making 100k /year is just getting by with those figures in a BLAH house. |
09-21-2006, 05:37 PM | #14 | |
Scooby Newbie
Member#: 31208
Join Date: Dec 2002
Chapter/Region:
BAIC
Location: Cali
Vehicle:02 WRX Wagon Smart ones get the wagon |
Quote:
The difference in interest rate in 1 year, unless you were paying cash. If you were renting, the cost of your rent. Taxes saved on interest payments. All those combined probably wouldn't off set the supposed $100K difference, but the added accuracy will keep things more realistic. Also, hindsight is 20/20. But is it that surprising w/ interest rates going up, that less people will be able to afford property? What causes the housing boom? Low interest rates. Where are the rates now? Also, rates are liekly to go down, again...what will happen then??? It's not rocket science. I think common sense covers it. |
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09-21-2006, 05:39 PM | #15 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 42714
Join Date: Sep 2003
Chapter/Region:
Tri-State
Location: Apalachin, NY
Vehicle:'07 BMW 335i E90 |
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09-21-2006, 05:41 PM | #16 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 22958
Join Date: Aug 2002
Chapter/Region:
SWIC
Location: Las Vegas
Vehicle:2017 Forester 2.5 Li Silver |
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09-21-2006, 05:42 PM | #17 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 42714
Join Date: Sep 2003
Chapter/Region:
Tri-State
Location: Apalachin, NY
Vehicle:'07 BMW 335i E90 |
Not necessarily "in trouble", but if you could by a house today that is $100K cheaper than it was 1 year ago, wouldn't you rather do that? You will have a lower payment and you will gain equity faster.
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09-21-2006, 05:46 PM | #18 | |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 42714
Join Date: Sep 2003
Chapter/Region:
Tri-State
Location: Apalachin, NY
Vehicle:'07 BMW 335i E90 |
Quote:
which calculates how much a house is overvalued, San Diego is about the 67th most overvalued place in the US. |
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09-21-2006, 05:50 PM | #19 | |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 33246
Join Date: Feb 2003
Chapter/Region:
NESIC
Location: Where ever I lay my hat is my
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Quote:
If one had no interest then they would have no home, thus living in moms basement or a ground level fixer-upper branded by Target with brown walls. How many people do you know IRL who can afford to buy a home cash with no loan? How many banks or persons do you know that loan money without a fee aka interest? - Janq |
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09-21-2006, 05:52 PM | #20 |
RIP Brother
Member#: 8739
Join Date: Jul 2001
Chapter/Region:
MAIC
Location: ~ 38.45 -75.05
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Those who HAVE to sell are the ones getting burned. Many have bought more home than they can afford and we will billions of $$$ in ARM's resetting in the next couple years. Look for housing prices to decline Nationally by 25-40% in the next couple years as more and more and more inventory comes into the market. Once people reduce their prices from what they THINK their home is worth then we will see housing pick back up.
http://www.schwabinsights.com/2006_09/mktoutlook.html Good read BTW. |
09-21-2006, 06:01 PM | #21 | |
Scooby Guru
Member#: 8808
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Chapter/Region:
NESIC
Location: WRJ, VT
Vehicle:2011 WRX DGM 5D |
Quote:
vastly, you'll find that in many inflated markets (such as boston or san diego), a homeowner who has purchased recently will be dissipating substantially more income than someone renting a similar property... and that's just the month-to-month... if you count closing costs, inspection fees, and all the other miscellaneous bits, buying, lately, has been a very tough pill to swallow. /Andrew |
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09-21-2006, 06:08 PM | #22 |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 33246
Join Date: Feb 2003
Chapter/Region:
NESIC
Location: Where ever I lay my hat is my
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KhaOS,
How much of your rent is tax deductible? Zero. Also how much of your rent is recoverable in the future upon moving? Zero, guaranteed. - Janq |
09-21-2006, 06:16 PM | #23 | |
Scooby Specialist
Member#: 42714
Join Date: Sep 2003
Chapter/Region:
Tri-State
Location: Apalachin, NY
Vehicle:'07 BMW 335i E90 |
Quote:
In general, if Mortgage Interest Write Off + Property Tax Write Off + Increase in Equity is greater than your rent, you have to buy a house (some people are hamstrung by other debts, but you get the drift). |
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09-21-2006, 06:16 PM | #24 | |
Scooby Guru
Member#: 8808
Join Date: Jul 2001
Chapter/Region:
NESIC
Location: WRJ, VT
Vehicle:2011 WRX DGM 5D |
Quote:
This is, and has been (for the last two or three years), a bad market for a first time homebuyer in a lot of major metro areas. There are good deals to be found, and ways to help protect yourself, but it's a minefield, and a lot of people are going to get nailed in the next few years. /Andrew |
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09-21-2006, 06:25 PM | #25 |
Scooby Newbie
Member#: 21897
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sunshine State
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I am cracking up as to how many homes around central florida are now for rent for ~1000 a month. They are trying to cover their balloon payments since the homes haven't sold for a while. We are talking new home construction btw. Been looking for a 2nd house for me to live in for a while, but prices have been unrealistic around me. Now that the housing market here is stagnant, I seeing light at the end of the tunnel. Those who think the article is a load of crock will end up seeing for themselves the drops....
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