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Old 03-02-2021, 09:40 PM   #4476
shiplemw
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Originally Posted by Cowboy Neal View Post
Heres an Arkansas house. I would consider living there. It would take a lot of your cash though..

https://www.oldhousedreams.com/2021/...ka-springs-ar/
That's a neat home.
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Old 03-02-2021, 09:47 PM   #4477
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That is an awesome graphic. What is your point with the graphic? Are you trying to prove someone that has lived longer has had more time to make and accumulate money? Would you expect millennials to get out high school and have more wealth than their parents?

The YOUNGEST Boomer in 2000 - would have been 35 years old and have worked for 10-15 years most likely.

The YOUNGEST GEN X at 2000 - would have been 19 years old and getting a job or going to college.

The OLDEST Millennial in 2000 - would have been 19 years old and getting into the work force.
it's a crummy graphic for the reasons you described but I believed deleting it would have been an act of cowardice, so I posted the second one which illustrated my point better.
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Old 03-02-2021, 10:01 PM   #4478
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it's a crummy graphic for the reasons you described but I believed deleting it would have been an act of cowardice, so I posted the second one which illustrated my point better.
I can appreciate your view. I don't know if the second one is any better.

% of wealth. Wealth continues to grow over time. How much wealth was there in 1990 vs. today?

If we do a comparison at points of time:
Millennial wealth - $4.73 - 5.96 Trillion (2020)
The average age of a millennial (assuming equal birth rates through the years and the generation was from 1981-1996) would be someone born in 1988 and they would be 32 years old at this point.

Gen X wealth (comparing similar 32 year old in 2004) - $3.18-4.24 Trillion

Now this doesn't take into account lots of variables and is just a data point in this back and forth discussion. But at similar age points, millennials are "richer" than their Gen X counterparts.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...l;units:levels
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:21 AM   #4479
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The comparison is between boomers and following generations.
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:57 AM   #4480
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Taking my dad's graduation year and mine and adding 20 years, Gen X is 3x wealthier than Boomers at same point. I dunno what that means, but both my dad and I bought our first homes in our early 20s.
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Old 03-03-2021, 07:56 AM   #4481
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housing market is a reflection of how much money people have. Its ridiculous.
Just looking at the market, the curve its taking is going logarithmic.
It used to take 10 years to double its worth. From 2016 to 2020 the market doubled.
Problem is, most people's salaries dont increase that fast. And here we are, not being able to afford to move on up because that next step moved higher and higher.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:22 AM   #4482
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Originally Posted by vapore0n View Post
housing market is a reflection of how much money people have. Its ridiculous.
Just looking at the market, the curve its taking is going logarithmic.
It used to take 10 years to double its worth. From 2016 to 2020 the market doubled.
Problem is, most people's salaries dont increase that fast. And here we are, not being able to afford to move on up because that next step moved higher and higher.
Why has the market gone up so sharply '16-'21? Some may say we are/were due for a correction but the fed is keeping things up with low interest rates.

Covid is the wildcard doing funky things to some local housing markets.

But you have consumer confidence going up, lending slightly easing up (can't tell you how many 'Oh you can't get a loan, come talk to us!' ads I've seen), low downpayment FHA which has been going on, and insanely low interest rates so "why rent when you can own!".

On one hand gov't implements policy to make homeownership easier to get into, but that drives up demand and supply is too thin so prices go up while being fueled with FOMO. Seems like a lot of factors playing off each other.

I thought prices in 2018 were crazy high, since then they've gone up, and I feel a bit of the FOMO as well even though I decided I'm going to stay put and not make any moves.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:35 AM   #4483
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ITT I learned what FOMO means.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:39 AM   #4484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vapore0n View Post
housing market is a reflection of how much money people have. Its ridiculous.
Just looking at the market, the curve its taking is going logarithmic.
It used to take 10 years to double its worth. From 2016 to 2020 the market doubled.
Problem is, most people's salaries dont increase that fast. And here we are, not being able to afford to move on up because that next step moved higher and higher.
So who are buying the houses that are now priced double what they were a short time ago?
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:39 AM   #4485
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Fear of Missing Out?
Figured it was a common word nowadays haha

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So who are buying the houses that are now priced double what they were a short time ago?
I'd imagine the people who are truly scared of living in heavily populated places/ Covid related issues?
That's what they're doing in my area. Houses have gone up 10-20% over the last few months.
I'd love to sell, but as others have said, then I'd be paying top dollar for another house
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:19 AM   #4486
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So who are buying the houses that are now priced double what they were a short time ago?
That's the thing, some people have been making ridiculous money.
Supply and demand does affect pricing heavily, but i also think people paying asking and over, just because they want or need it, has set up a sellers market.
I had to drop 30k over just to get the house I got.

Then you have the people that dont earn enough to even save for a house, and wont be able to reach that goal, as the posts keep moving.

I think a bubble pop is coming. The market, or the housing, something has to give. We cant keep going up up up.
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:36 AM   #4487
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That graphic should be normalized by age.

EDIT: So when is the 45 year mortgage coming? I mean, why not if there's an 84 month car loan!
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:37 AM   #4488
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Originally Posted by Salvation27 View Post


I'd imagine the people who are truly scared of living in heavily populated places/ Covid related issues?
That's what they're doing in my area. Houses have gone up 10-20% over the last few months.
I'd love to sell, but as others have said, then I'd be paying top dollar for another house
I think a lot of factors in play here - particularly for NJ.
People worried about the virus even though it's short term imo.
People are losing their marbles over close living environments and want space.
People from NYC ventured out into the "landfill of NJ" and realized it wasn't as bad as their neighbor said it was.
People are working from home and have promises this is the new normal
People have stimulus checks and more money from not going out and enjoying those "experiences" we talked about in this thread.
Some maybe haven't paid rent due to eviction moratoriums, and banked however many thousands their rent was and have a bigger downpayment.
And then add historic low interest rates.

We haven't seen the long term effects of covid yet - and I suspect there will be some. Some shuttered retail/commercial space, downsized offices, fat trimming, less desire to live in NYC with short commutes.

Seems sketchy when a bunch of factors all play into rising prices.
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:48 AM   #4489
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The house I mentioned is an LA person moving out here to buy out a business (that is coincidentally owned by someone else in our neighborhood).
He told the realtor (also one of our neighbors) some of the reasons L&F shared:

The country is superior for their family (husband/wife and 2 kids IIRC), for a multitude of factors. And with the transition, they are FLUSH due to the housing adjustment.
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:58 AM   #4490
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When I lived in the Dallas area we had quite a few people that moved from California with Toyota. Most of those folks had stacks of cash after selling out there and buying a much nicer house in one of the Dallas suburbs.
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Old 03-03-2021, 10:54 AM   #4491
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Bought a house here in WA last August, $425k. Have to relocate to TX because of job, zillow estimates our house is currently worth $465k. Best case scenario, break even because we used zero down VA loan. Looking at houses in TX, they're not as cheap as we thought it would be. The same size, quality of house in TX is maybe $30k cheaper if not the same price. And my wife and I will be making less in TX. So yeah, this current housing market isn't doing us any favors currently.
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:46 AM   #4492
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Where? May I guess and say Austin? Maybe interior DFW or Htown too...but Austin was the price leader.

San Antonio was still a cheaper option last time I checked.
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:50 AM   #4493
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NutBucket View Post
That graphic should be normalized by age.

EDIT: So when is the 45 year mortgage coming? I mean, why not if there's an 84 month car loan!
They just need to brand it as an intergenerational mortgage. Pass the liability and the house to your children!
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:53 AM   #4494
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I keep waiting and waiting for the housing market to drop. In the mean time, I have saved enough money for a 6 figure down payment. The goal was to be able to have a down payment and not sell my current house and use that as a rental, so that has been achieved. Ideally this will allow me to take advantage of a market drop by only buying and not selling....any day now...

Current house is only 1200+ square feet with 3 bedrooms. Perfect little starter house, but my oldest kid is turning 13 soon and I have 2 other kids following shortly. This house is too small for three growing kids.

I have been waiting for the drop for over a year and am hoping it happens within the next year. Otherwise I will be forced to upgrade regardless of the market. I'll just keep saving in the meantime.

Maybe I should buy some empty land out in the middle of nowhere as an investment with some extra cash...

EDIT: Current house was purchased back in 2016 and apparently has appreciated almost $150k since (according to Zillow). Crazy times indeed.

Last edited by flat_tire; 03-03-2021 at 12:20 PM.
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:53 AM   #4495
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Instead of a reverse mortgage, you can have cash NOW!*

*Please note your children will be part of the loan origination and will be joint owners, so we recommend getting them on-ramped to employment at their earliest opportunity.
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Old 03-03-2021, 12:17 PM   #4496
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Originally Posted by flat_tire View Post
I keep waiting and waiting for the housing market to drop. In the mean time, I have saved enough money for a 6 figure down payment. The goal was to be able to have a down payment and not sell my current house and use that as a rental, so that has been achieved. Ideally this will allow me to take advantage of a market drop by only buying and not selling....any day now...

Current house is only 1200+ square feet with 3 bedrooms. Perfect little starter house, but my oldest kid is turning 13 soon and I have 2 other kids following shortly. This house is too small for three growing kids.

I have been waiting for the drop for over a year and am hoping it happens within the next year. Otherwise I will be forced to upgrade regardless of the market. I'll just keep saving in the meantime.

Maybe I should be some empty land out in the middle of nowhere as an investment with some extra cash...

EDIT: Current house was purchased back in 2016 and apparently has appreciated almost $150k since (according to Zillow). Crazy times indeed.
Similar story minus a kid and I purchased in 2018.
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Old 03-03-2021, 12:51 PM   #4497
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Vapore0n is answering the questions better than I could - we've reached the "K-Shaped Recovery" where some people are making an absolute ****ing ton of money, but far more people are still struggling, and a lot of the people who are making an absolute ****ing ton of money are buying real estate as an investment.
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:40 PM   #4498
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I'm not sure if I qualify as making an "absolute ****ing ton of money" but otherwise I'm your culprit in mind. Up in mountain county with this particular place I'm not displacing any locals, though.
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:43 PM   #4499
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Originally Posted by The Motel Fella View Post
Where? May I guess and say Austin? Maybe interior DFW or Htown too...but Austin was the price leader.

San Antonio was still a cheaper option last time I checked.
Believe it or not, San Antonio. The more established neighborhoods with updated houses aren't as cheap as one would think.
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:45 PM   #4500
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I'm not sure if I qualify as making an "absolute ****ing ton of money" but otherwise I'm your culprit in mind. Up in mountain county with this particular place I'm not displacing any locals, though.
Yeah I mean realistically a - what, $800,000 mountain house? is not displacing anyone the same way that buying a $300k starter home in the suburbs for $400k cash is.

But you're on thin ice, bourgeois scum!
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