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Old 09-01-2019, 09:42 PM   #4001
etothen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Not necessarily true given that the carbon costs inherent in production of a vehicle scale both with the amount of raw material for the shell and non-drivetrain components as well as battery pack size.

I would wager it'd take a whole lot fewer miles for a 40 kWh Aptera to pay off its carbon debt from manufacturing relative to a 100 kWh Model S, regardless of how the electricity for the drive miles are sourced.

I'm not even sure if the entire production chain will ever be carbon neutral (for mining of aluminum, etc.).
I see what you are saying, but I have solid reasons for thinking the actual spreadsheet for them would not actually add up the way you think.

A lot of large scale mining equipment is already electrified, when the sources of electricity become carbon neutral then that part of the cycle becomes neutral. This is electrification followed by greening of the power sources is projected to happen for all aspects of the life cycle of vehicles, and all other manufacturing for that matter.

That change is happening fast enough I just do not see the real advantage of these vehicles since it will take the dirty energy we use now to produce them now and they will probably last much longer than any environmental advantage they can provide reducing the environmental advantage of their production too near zero or in fact a negative number compared to not building them and the facilities need to produce them. Particularly given that they are no where near production at this point. It just seems like an unnecessary and potentially wasteful interim step for road transportation.

But again, that shape could be useful and have an economically justifiable use for as a personal transportation flying vehicle. This kind of economic/environmental calculus is a significant part of climate modeling and I don't immediately see any obvious advantage to producing these at any significant scale at this point.

They look neat, I am not saying you should not buy one, but I am more that a little suspicious that the benefit to climate will pen out in the end. But hey, we have the Prius and it's green cred over a simple efficient small displacement ICE has been questionable since the beginning.


I can however see these\/\/ emissions skyrocketing if they go into production.

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Old 09-01-2019, 09:56 PM   #4002
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This kind of economic/environmental calculus is a significant part of climate modeling and I don't immediately see any obvious advantage to producing these at any significant scale at this point.
Did you see my edit that added a graph from prior modeling work? One can extrapolate from the medium and small BEV categories down to an "extra small" for one with the footprint of an Aptera.

I agree that it won't make a huge difference on a population scale because no one would buy these in a statistical sense, but I'm saying there's a potential rational basis for wanting one of these, not just because it looks sweet (IMO).
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Old 09-02-2019, 12:43 AM   #4003
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Am I the only one who just puts their mtb inside the SUV instead of on a rack? Maybe too many years in Oregon fearing for theft of bikes has affected me.
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Old 09-02-2019, 12:53 AM   #4004
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Am I the only one who just puts their mtb inside the SUV instead of on a rack? Maybe too many years in Oregon fearing for theft of bikes has affected me.

Ain’t nobody got time for taking off wheels and getting mud and **** everywhere.
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Old 09-02-2019, 08:59 AM   #4005
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Wheels stay on in the 4runner.
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Old 09-02-2019, 09:20 AM   #4006
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Wheels stay on in the 4runner.

Related: current set up of kid seats in the Land Cruiser is of the 3rd row being halfway up/installed with a Britax Pinnacle 90 for the 6 year old who can buckle and unbuckle herself, and the 2nd row with a rear facing (again! So that they can face each other) Britax Advocate Clicktight in the middle position.

Amidst all that plus with my long wheelbase, 800 mm bar equipped 29er the interior is a no go.
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Old 09-02-2019, 09:53 AM   #4007
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BEV F-150 “before 2022”:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/i...ing-its-bosses

Before it the Mustang based EV crossover, whatever the hell that is, and an electric Transit after—they didn’t apply the Connect suffix so the full size one for cargo routes perhaps?
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Old 09-02-2019, 09:53 AM   #4008
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I find it interesting that you're only comparing fuel expenses in your spreadsheet. I would have thought you'd have the total cost/mile figured out by now. , shik.
I'm sure the LC would still be in the lead over the hitch.

The Aptera's shape is going to require composite construction which likely means carbon fiber (because the buyers of such a vehicle will think that's necessary over 'pedestrian' fiberglass), which requires a tremendous amount of energy sunk into just creating the filament. Then it's going to need to be made with rare plant-based resins, but we all know they're just going to use the cheap petroleum-based stuff because the buyers don't care, so long as it looks the part.

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Now, if you replaced that running gear with three or four powerful shrouded drone motors and props and give it a 60 min/100 mile flying range, then you have something that could be revolutionary, completely change the way we live, work and play.

That would be interesting, and certainly worth investing in...
Nope. Multi-rotor drone flight works great for drones, but are not suited to human flight. They're extremely inefficient, incredibly loud, and cannot glide after a loss of power. What works for a 5oz-25lb drone simply doesn't scale up to a family-friendly vehicle.
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Old 09-02-2019, 11:55 AM   #4009
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This post is in response to the ones above, and reflects my ongoing love of calculating things with spreadsheets.



Anyway, I thought Compressed's advice was worth pursuing a bit, so priced out a hitch for my Model 3 and compared it to the cost of driving the Land Cruiser.



Notes: I saw 15.7 adjusted-for-tire-size MPG last tank in the Land Cruiser so 15 is fair, and 260 Wh/mile is my real-world usage in the Tesla over its ~7k life thus far. The quoted price for the hitch is from Hitch Corner, one of two Torklift-approved installers in the area, and the hitch alone would cost a bit over $400 so it's a $500 install. Said install was reportedly 3.5 hours per Compressed, and I've decided I've installed enough hitches in my life (3 that I can recall) to warrant paying a $142/hr rate.

The long and the short of it is that with these assumptions it'd take just shy of 100 trips to Mountain Lion to pay off the hitch, as it were. Admittedly it'd be more fun to drive the zippy Tesla up, but the counter to that is that I already drive those roads at a faster pace than the vast majority of 4 wheeled traffic, don't need incentive to speed more, and I actually enjoy the process of hustling the tall beast through the corners--it's so wide that it doesn't really feel tippy at all.

I probably get on the order of 40-50 mountain bike rides in per year, many at Mountain Lion but some at closer in locales (few farther). So we are looking at least 2 years if there is no monetary value assigned to zoom zooming in the Tesla.

I'm leaning towards just continuing to burn gas in the Land Cruiser for heading out to riding. As it is now it lives with the hitch rack always on it and all my biking gear save for the actual bike stashed in the back. It's a pretty convenient setup.

I figured the LC would be the clear winner once you added in labor cost for installation. $500 for installation seems pretty high but that's another topic.

Conversely I got my hitch for $375 on a BF sale and installed it myself and ignoring what my time is worth I am comfortable with the amount extra I put into my 3 to give it bike carrying duties. Of course I did buy a single One Up as well for the Tesla as I didn't want the huge Thule 4 tray on the 3.

Simply put there are much more economical choices for vehicles than the Model 3 at the moment but I believe that at some point one has to model the change they want to see in the world and I definitely believe we as humans need to move to a more sustainable interaction with the world as whole. I do think that the true win of something like a Model 3 is if one keeps it for the long term, say 15 years. EV's are likely to win when considering the long game considering daily operation costs, low maintenance and projected reliability.

For sure it would have been more economical for me to just keep my paid off '12 4Runner with only 40k miles and used that for the next ten years and sometimes I wish I'd done so but driving the Tesla does feel revolutionary to me and I'm happy to have purchased and own it.
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Old 09-02-2019, 12:00 PM   #4010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Did you see my edit that added a graph from prior modeling work? One can extrapolate from the medium and small BEV categories down to an "extra small" for one with the footprint of an Aptera.

I agree that it won't make a huge difference on a population scale because no one would buy these in a statistical sense, but I'm saying there's a potential rational basis for wanting one of these, not just because it looks sweet (IMO).
That is exactly what I am saying goes away when you factor in the entire life cycle of a low production vehicle when they have to build the factory now with all dirty supply lines. And when it is clean to build it it will not matter anymore.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Calamity Jesus View Post
I find it interesting that you're only comparing fuel expenses in your spreadsheet. I would have thought you'd have the total cost/mile figured out by now. , shik.
I'm sure the LC would still be in the lead over the hitch.

The Aptera's shape is going to require composite construction which likely means carbon fiber (because the buyers of such a vehicle will think that's necessary over 'pedestrian' fiberglass), which requires a tremendous amount of energy sunk into just creating the filament. Then it's going to need to be made with rare plant-based resins, but we all know they're just going to use the cheap petroleum-based stuff because the buyers don't care, so long as it looks the part.



Nope. Multi-rotor drone flight works great for drones, but are not suited to human flight. They're extremely inefficient, incredibly loud, and cannot glide after a loss of power. What works for a 5oz-25lb drone simply doesn't scale up to a family-friendly vehicle.
Hey, I saw the guy flying the bathtub, I know this is a mature technology and you are just hiding the truth man.

But there are a number of one and two occupant vehicles in development, we will see if they overcome some of the problems and get past the development stage.
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Old 09-02-2019, 01:01 PM   #4011
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Originally Posted by thechickencow View Post
Am I the only one who just puts their mtb inside the SUV instead of on a rack? Maybe too many years in Oregon fearing for theft of bikes has affected me.

Leaving my 1up single mounted on the 4Runner is far more convenient than trying to load the bike inside. The security on the 1up isn’t great but I park in a secure lot at work and bring cable lock when I need to go beyond the 1up wheel lock.
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Old 09-02-2019, 04:38 PM   #4012
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Originally Posted by Compressed View Post
I figured the LC would be the clear winner once you added in labor cost for installation. $500 for installation seems pretty high but that's another topic.
Yeah, at that price it seems akin to the contractor who purposefully bids high because they don’t really want the job.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Compressed View Post
Conversely I got my hitch for $375 on a BF sale and installed it myself and ignoring what my time is worth I am comfortable with the amount extra I put into my 3 to give it bike carrying duties. Of course I did buy a single One Up as well for the Tesla as I didn't want the huge Thule 4 tray on the 3.
Yeah, ideally I’d go with the One Up as well to not block the backup camera as you’ve noted. But I probably shouldn’t ignore what my time is worth, since I still at this point actively sign up for extra evening shifts at work for extra pay. Doing so shows I’m still making the choice that trading away extra time for XYZ/hr makes sense, so I shouldn’t trade away extra time without keeping that in mind.

(As an aside I am thinking I’ll cut back on these extra shifts in future months even if it extends the time until I can cut back to 0.7 FTE by a few months ultimately. The calculus is shifting such that I’m not thinking the extra money is worth it… especially when it’s taxed at my marginal rate.)



Quote:
Originally Posted by Compressed View Post
Simply put there are much more economical choices for vehicles than the Model 3 at the moment but I believe that at some point one has to model the change they want to see in the world and I definitely believe we as humans need to move to a more sustainable interaction with the world as whole.
I’m with you here, but my cynical response would be that we’re screwed anyway. Hell, look at the number of dump trucks running about Denver with all of its construction. All that carbon cost for cement being poured willy nilly and a large portion of those trucks seem like old privately owned pieces of ****, spewing black smoke upon acceleration and I imagine blatantly not in line with modern emissions regulations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Compressed View Post
I do think that the true win of something like a Model 3 is if one keeps it for the long term, say 15 years. EV's are likely to win when considering the long game considering daily operation costs, low maintenance and projected reliability.



For sure it would have been more economical for me to just keep my paid off '12 4Runner with only 40k miles and used that for the next ten years and sometimes I wish I'd done so but driving the Tesla does feel revolutionary to me and I'm happy to have purchased and own it.

As with the above I’m with you… except that I got that Toyota back and now awkwardly must figure out how to balance both the old Toyota I’m attached to and the sleek, super modern Tesla that does somethings fantastically well (acceleration, looks IMO, cleanliness/roominess of interior) and others not so much (road noise although not horrible by any means, phone integration—where’s my damn CarPlay?!).
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Old 09-02-2019, 04:42 PM   #4013
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Originally Posted by Calamity Jesus View Post
I find it interesting that you're only comparing fuel expenses in your spreadsheet. I would have thought you'd have the total cost/mile figured out by now. , shik.

I'm sure the LC would still be in the lead over the hitch.
Breaking down recurring and (at my mileage per year) not really mileage dependent but rather time dependent maintenance costs didn’t sound like something fun, so I didn’t do it.





Quote:
Originally Posted by Calamity Jesus View Post
The Aptera's shape is going to require composite construction which likely means carbon fiber (because the buyers of such a vehicle will think that's necessary over 'pedestrian' fiberglass), which requires a tremendous amount of energy sunk into just creating the filament. Then it's going to need to be made with rare plant-based resins, but we all know they're just going to use the cheap petroleum-based stuff because the buyers don't care, so long as it looks the part.
Yeah, this is all true. But I still hope they get their business case figured out and they sell one to me eventually. Just watch, they come out with one and it only has 37.0” of headroom…





Quote:
Originally Posted by Calamity Jesus View Post
Nope. Multi-rotor drone flight works great for drones, but are not suited to human flight. They're extremely inefficient, incredibly loud, and cannot glide after a loss of power. What works for a 5oz-25lb drone simply doesn't scale up to a family-friendly vehicle.

The Volocopter folks seem to think it’s feasible…

https://www.theverge.com/transportat...intel-ces-2018

Last edited by shikataganai; 09-02-2019 at 04:48 PM.
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Old 09-02-2019, 04:44 PM   #4014
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Originally Posted by quentinberg007 View Post
Leaving my 1up single mounted on the 4Runner is far more convenient than trying to load the bike inside. The security on the 1up isn’t great but I park in a secure lot at work and bring cable lock when I need to go beyond the 1up wheel lock.

Ultimately anything mounted to a rack is vulnerable to an angle grinder to the rack’s body… or even just having the hitch itself unbolted from the vehicle’s frame. Locks are just to deter crimes of convenience.
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:19 PM   #4015
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Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Ultimately anything mounted to a rack is vulnerable to an angle grinder to the rack’s body… or even just having the hitch itself unbolted from the vehicle’s frame. Locks are just to deter crimes of convenience.


And the people willing to take angle grinder to a rack or unbolt the hitch aren’t willing to slim jim the car or smash out the glass?
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:24 PM   #4016
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I have no intention of getting such a thing (no, really), but this caught me eye from Jalopnik’s review of the Jeep Gladiator (the Wrangler-pickup thing):



Note that there is one configuration that yields good towing and good payload. Max payload rating is on a setup with low towing, and apart from that one Gladiator Sport config anything else that tows 6,000 lbs or up has **** payload. (For reference my Land Cruiser has a 1,500 lb payload and 6,500 lb tow rating.)
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:25 PM   #4017
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1,105-1,200 lbs payload for a 2 row vehicle with, say, 4 people riding in it, some gear in the back, and maybe 700 lbs tongue weight from a trailer is simply insufficient.
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:34 PM   #4018
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Like anyone pays attention to payload ratings.....clearly you're doing it wrong.
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:47 PM   #4019
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The purpose of the Gladiator is to print money from sales to Jeep-lyfe bros. Can they still mount LED light bars, cheap lifts, Rock star wheels and angry grille? If yes, it will do all it needs to do.
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:48 PM   #4020
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Like anyone pays attention to payload ratings.....clearly you're doing it wrong.

The F series with leaf spring through bed is a great example of this being true.
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Old 09-02-2019, 05:59 PM   #4021
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The purpose of the Gladiator is to print money from sales to Jeep-lyfe bros. Can they still mount LED light bars, cheap lifts, Rock star wheels and angry grille? If yes, it will do all it needs to do.
This, all day everyday. A real off-road nut would buy a CJ and mod the crap out of it.

And Shik, that's why the e-rated tires on the rear of an HD pickup are to be inflated to 75 psi
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Old 09-02-2019, 06:13 PM   #4022
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This, all day everyday. A real off-road nut would buy a CJ and mod the crap out of it.

And Shik, that's why the e-rated tires on the rear of an HD pickup are to be inflated to 75 psi




I found this in Japan for my CJ7 owning buddy. The CJ didn’t make it on the off-roading trip last year due to life... but hopefully he will have it this year when I give him the shirt.
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Old 09-02-2019, 06:20 PM   #4023
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Great shirt!
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Old 09-02-2019, 07:07 PM   #4024
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So let me see if I understand.. you need +1" tires, >6000lbs capacity and goatse hitch just for a bike rack. Amirite?
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Old 09-02-2019, 08:29 PM   #4025
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Shik-logic at work. You'd swear he's a government employee based on that!
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