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Old 03-06-2019, 05:47 PM   #2951
NutBucket
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30 miles is pretty reasonable. My commute is 18 miles each way and there are chargers at work. Even if I didn't charge at work it would still significantly reduce gas usage.
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Old 03-06-2019, 11:45 PM   #2952
shikataganai
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https://electrek.co/2019/03/06/tesla...ty-efficiency/

V3 Supercharger unveiled.

V2: 120 kW peak. Power sharing between stalls so lower peaks if someone charging next to you. Air cooled cables.

V3: 250 kW. Water cooled. No power sharing. 250 only possible on long range Model 3 from what I can gather, pending a software update. V2 installations will get a bump to 145 kW but won’t get redone as V3 per this announcement, so for new sites instead.

What does 250 kW look like?

Quote:
On Tesla’s most efficient vehicles, like the Long Range Model 3, the company says that the new Supercharger V3 can add up to 75 miles of range in 5 minutes and charge at a peak rage[sic] of 1,000 miles per hour of range.
My take is that this compares favorably to the plans for Electrify America. They plan 150 kW CCS stations on highways with a future upgrade path to 350 kW. Instead Tesla already has 120 kW Superchargers all over the place and will roll out 250 kW ones going forward. Bird in hand, etc.
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Old 03-07-2019, 12:29 AM   #2953
etothen
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1000 miles of range per hour of charging in a model 3?

:warning I am about to pull some back of the envelope numbers straight out of my but:

75kWh model 3 = 325 miles so 325miles/75kWh = 4.333 miles/kWh
So lets say the upcoming eF150 is only half as efficient as the current model 3, so 2.15 miles/kWh

Lets look at a dollar/kWh chart.

https://i.imgur.com/YoYsI3H.png

Screw their line, it is nowhere near a polynomial fit to the points on the graph, something that would be a better fit but still be asymptotic and run into some basic physical and material challenges will have $100/kWh packs by 2023-2024?

The model three battery pack weighs around 1054 lbs at 75 kWh, about 14lbs/kWh. Given the weight/power density curve a 2024 pack should weigh about 2/3 as much per kWh so lets say 14*2/3 = 9.3 lbs/kWh in 2024. Lets give the 2024 eF150 Long Range a 250kWh pack, it would weigh about 2340 lbs, say a truck weight of 6500-7000 lbs with the new battery and motors and loosing the previous drive train, liquids and cooling systems.

Getting 600hp and 1000tq would be easy now, real easy then, so 0-60 is sub six seconds, possibly quite a bit less and given the extra weight of the vehicle the relative weight of towed things will be less so much better towing performance and it will fairly conservatively have a non towing range of around (2.15miles/kWh)*250kWh= 540 miles that will by then be able to charge on the new current Tesla standard in 1 hour and on the upcoming 350kW/h Charge America system in 40 min.

Given that the first eF150 comes out in 2020, I'll bet you will be able to buy a self driving eF150 XLT 302A SCrew with the range and power numbers I mentioned above that will charge on a 350kW/h charger in 40 min for $70K- $60K after incentives and dealer discount in say 2025?

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2025 familE Truckster available on approved credit with a 3.5% APR 120 month mortgage for $593/month.*









*I suspect it will actually weigh 500 lbs less, cost $10,000 less, have a 650 mile unloaded range and a sub 5.5 sec 0-60 time.

Last edited by etothen; 03-07-2019 at 11:11 AM.
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Old 03-07-2019, 09:47 AM   #2954
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I approve of back of napkin calculations. I know you didn't intend it but you mixed usage of kWh (capacity) and kW (energy) a few times. I totally agree that with the trends in price there'll be an inflection point within the next decade after which it'll simply make more economic sense to go electric for all of the things.
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Old 03-07-2019, 11:08 AM   #2955
etothen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
I approve of back of napkin calculations. I know you didn't intend it but you mixed usage of kWh (capacity) and kW (energy) a few times. I totally agree that with the trends in price there'll be an inflection point within the next decade after which it'll simply make more economic sense to go electric for all of the things.
Doh!, fiksd
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Old 03-07-2019, 11:50 AM   #2956
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I do think in 5 years the range and capabilities of the machines will be pretty amazing.

I'm training myself for an electric car now by letting my phone go below 50% charge before plugging it in a couple days a week.
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Old 03-07-2019, 11:58 AM   #2957
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Sign that I live in a yuppie neighborhood:

On way to drop off kid at bus stop there is a 4 way stop. Inclusive of mine 3 of the 4 ways had Model 3s at them.

Then at the bus stop a Model X drove by. And as I left the bus stop I passed yet another 3.
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:37 PM   #2958
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Quote:
Originally Posted by etothen View Post
*I suspect it will actually weigh 500 lbs less, cost $10,000 less, have a 650 mile unloaded range and a sub 5.5 sec 0-60 time.
I want to get to the point where we have affordable electric "crate engine" packages that I can stuff into whatever car I want.

5 sec 0-60, 120mph top speed, and 50KWh quick change battery pack so I can make an electric rally car.
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:37 PM   #2959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fliz View Post
I want to get to the point where we have affordable electric "crate engine" packages that I can stuff into whatever car I want.



5 sec 0-60, 120mph top speed, and 50KWh quick change battery pack so I can make an electric rally car.


That would be a cool project to have sit in your garage for 10 years.
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:40 PM   #2960
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Originally Posted by thechickencow View Post
That would be a cool project to have sit in your garage for 10 years.
Iknowrite?!

I sold it after seven years...
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:37 PM   #2961
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https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03...bly-dangerous/

Quote:
In January 2016, Musk predicted that Tesla cars would be able to drive autonomously coast to coast "in ~2 years.

Needless to say, this hasn't happened. And after more than two years of peddling unrealistic visions of Autopilot's future, Tesla's Autopilot page has finally been updated to reflect that reality.

The page's headline has changed from "Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars" to "Future of Driving." A sentence about Tesla's ride-sharing network has been deleted. The "Full Self-Driving" section now includes a disclaimer that "future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience."

In other words, despite Musk's bluster over the years, Autopilot is still just a driver-assistance system. And it will continue to be just a driver-assistance system for some time to come.
Others share my skepticism. I think he’s going to deliver stop line, red light, and rudimentary intersection handling ability at the end of this year with the same level 2 caveat that it might crap out and require intervention immediately at any time and claim Mission Accomplished.
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:49 PM   #2962
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Related: https://jalopnik.com/heres-another-d...-of-1833123703

I use it responsibly. It’s far too easy to abuse it, though, as this extreme example shows.

The cat’s already out of the bag but it would have been better ultimately to mandate Super Cruise type driver awareness tech before these level 2 systems were unleashed.
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Old 03-07-2019, 08:05 PM   #2963
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Sign that I live in a yuppie neighborhood:

On way to drop off kid at bus stop there is a 4 way stop. Inclusive of mine 3 of the 4 ways had Model 3s at them.

Then at the bus stop a Model X drove by. And as I left the bus stop I passed yet another 3.
Thanks for saving the rotten dinosaurs for my gas tank
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:42 AM   #2964
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fliz View Post
Iknowrite?!

I sold it after seven years...


But how are you going to rally 14 years from now?
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Old 03-08-2019, 02:12 PM   #2965
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wrxlvr View Post
Well, there's your ground clearance!

Quote:
Originally Posted by NutBucket View Post
Agreed. But the LX is awesome enough I can get past the grillz.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
https://i.imgur.com/0w1M1BC.jpg

Past and present vehicular interests in my work garage this morning.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Benhart21 View Post
Still a grille only a mother could love.

I test drove two vehicles at CarMax today because why not? (And because it scratches my “what if?” itch.) Both were Lexus LXs, so like my old Land Cruiser but plus a gen and one and two refreshes, respectively.

2014 Lexus LX 570

This one felt beat. Nanny wasn’t kind to it up at the Aspen house, perhaps? Scratches and scuffs on interior, needed an alignment, smelled of either old smoke or old thick perfume.

Drove as I remember my old 100 Series, for better or worse. Slow steering ratio, long hood, very smooth and quiet. Old style dashboard wasn’t endearing—more vertical and visually imposing than modern designs.

Verdict: Meh, particularly for this example.

2016 Lexus LX 570

Only glimpsed its Alien maw once so wasn’t scarred. New interior is worlds nicer than the old in style and layout. Lower cowl height with stuck on screen is a good overall compromise. Mousy thing was annoying and the system’s response laggy. Millions of buttons and knobs on center console. Nice open pore wood textures but the wood on the steering wheel didn’t wear well at all.

8 speed mated to 5.7L is a lovely, smooth drivetrain. Verified cruise is stop and go (Full Speed Dynamic Radar Cruise Control in ToyoLexus lingo). I didn’t play with the stereo but I’m sure the Mark Levinson is superb.

Verdict: the 2016+ LX is what I wanted my Land Cruiser to be, for better or worse. But is that what I want? I do want something bigger than my 3 ultimately and it would make for a great ski day vehicle as did my Land Cruiser. Saner 3 row AWD alternatives abound but are just so… normal.

I still will likely plow on with my Tesla upgrade path plans but was nice to knock these off my list—recall that I do enjoy doing this, after all.
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Old 03-08-2019, 02:20 PM   #2966
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What kind of price did they have on the ‘16?
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Old 03-08-2019, 03:21 PM   #2967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thechickencow View Post
What kind of price did they have on the ‘16?

Listed at $63k.

https://www.carmax.com/car/16650912

KBB says dealer value for those options and miles should be $62-69k.
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Old 03-08-2019, 03:33 PM   #2968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Listed at $63k.

https://www.carmax.com/car/16650912

KBB says dealer value for those options and miles should be $62-69k.


Wish it didn’t include a picture of the front end.
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Old 03-08-2019, 04:05 PM   #2969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thechickencow View Post
Wish it didn’t include a picture of the front end.



Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Verdict: the 2016+ LX is what I wanted my Land Cruiser to be, for better or worse. But is that what I want? I do want something bigger than my 3 ultimately and it would make for a great ski day vehicle as did my Land Cruiser. Saner 3 row AWD alternatives abound but are just so… normal.

My wife is the voice of reason and reminded me just now that an LX would have the same drawbacks as the Land Cruiser had:

- if kid car seats 3 wide in the second row (barring funny foldable designs like the IMMI GO) then 3rd row access is very difficult, as in awkwardly climbing into the high rear of the vehicle
- 3rd row on Land Cruiser and its variants is pretty useless, particularly with regard to legroom. This is exacerbated when one puts a car seat back there

So maybe Tesla will surprise me and throw in a useful magic 3rd row on the Model Y, like with built in jump seats a la the discontinued Model S option . Or maybe we will try our luck next season as a family on ski trips with Nokians (and auto socks) on the FWD PacHy. Or maybe I’ll go conventional once more.
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Old 03-08-2019, 04:06 PM   #2970
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Just nut up and get a damn x (probably repost from page 1). The 3 and the Y are not going to be your magic unicorn.

Last edited by El Wray; 03-08-2019 at 04:29 PM.
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Old 03-08-2019, 05:53 PM   #2971
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Originally Posted by El Wray View Post
Just nut up and get a damn x (probably repost from page 1). The 3 and the Y are not going to be your magic unicorn.

This comment is called for, yes. But I don’t like the X.

I am a fickle beast and enjoy unicorn hunting, perhaps more so than eating the damn unicorn-like animal in and of itself.
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Old 03-08-2019, 06:52 PM   #2972
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If Tesla had just put normal doors on the X and priced it 10% more than the Model S, it would be a runaway success.
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Old 03-08-2019, 07:20 PM   #2973
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Actually this is true. Those rear doors are stupid and unnecessary on a family vehicle.
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Old 03-08-2019, 09:21 PM   #2974
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Just to pile on, the X is ugly AF and has Rube Goldberg doors. It looks like an egg and every one I see has the rear spoiler in the up position driving around at city speeds.
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Old 03-08-2019, 09:27 PM   #2975
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quentinberg007 View Post
Just to pile on, the X is ugly AF and has Rube Goldberg doors. It looks like an egg and every one I see has the rear spoiler in the up position driving around at city speeds.
They stopped making them active spoilers early on, that's why they all look like they're stuck in the up position.
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