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Old 09-21-2006, 06:31 PM   #26
Sauceboy01
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I believe Location will be the most important factor of dropping housing prices from now on. If you live in a crappy neighborhood you're not going to be able to sell your home at the inflated prices that you used to. On the other hand if you were to purchase a home in the more upscale parts of town, i dont think we'll see a big drop if any drops at all.
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Old 09-21-2006, 06:42 PM   #27
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has anyone looked into the quantifiable difference the higher interest rate has on a new purchase vs 1-2 years ago?

I'm thinking it's like a 1-1.5% difference.

For a 30 year loan, it's a no brainer.

For a more likely 10 yr period: Even w/o compound interest (which is huge), a simple calculation has a difference of 1.5% on a $500K home to be $75,000.

I know I overly simplified the argument, but that doesn't seem to stop others from throwing in their opinions.

Seems to me, you pick your poison:

Expensive house at low financing or cheaper house at high financing.

I agree, Any way you look at it, the house flippers who joined the party late will burn (unless they alway netted mucho profits from starting earlier).
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Old 09-21-2006, 06:45 PM   #28
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I have used rent versus buy calculators for where I live now. Assuming I had 20% down ($45K) my mortgage payment would be twice what my rent payment is now. That is before the HOA fees of $2600/year, PMI and other fee's and expenses. So $790/mo versus $1450, plus $650 a quarter for dues, PMI, and 45K...............I'll be happy to rent for a while and bank the rest.

This unit was purchased in '98 for $87K, comps in the hood are $230-240 today. I looked at purchasing a few years ago, even though I "qualified" I resisted as I didn't see the value (insert couldn't afford it) and hoped for something to come along more affordable. This was when speculators and investors were driving everything up.

Glad I didn't catch the falling knife.

Prices will decline and the affordability index will correct itself. Ocean City currently has twice as many homes on the market as last year, and on avg. 50% fewer settlements and there are major projects still being built out. I saw one project close out $100K off of $700,000 condo's. It wasn't a price reduction, rather "buyers incentives". The Realtors need to get theirs without messing up the comps, not to mention the builder doesn't wan't to get sued by those who paid the $700K.

When those ARM's reset in '07 and '08 we will see the dramatic price declines. I will be ready and happy I saved money and resited the pressure a couple years ago.

BTW--> The "Sheriff Sales" on foreclosed properties selling at auction increases by the week in our local paper.......wonder what it will look like a year from now.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:09 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Janq View Post
Fixed

If one had no interest then they would have no home, thus living in moms basement or a ground level fixer-upper branded by Target with brown walls.

How many people do you know IRL who can afford to buy a home cash with no loan?
How many banks or persons do you know that loan money without a fee aka interest?

- Janq
That still doesn't change the fact that the $ you paid in interest goes to the bank and you'll never see that $ again. Just as you'll never see the $$ from your rent again. Both are the cost of you living in certain house. Right now, the $ I throw away to the land lord is 1/2 of what I would throw away to the bank. Even after tax write off and etc, my rent is still around 60-70% of the interest I would pay for the same place.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:09 PM   #30
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How many real estate price threads can one man make?

Because I think you're going for a record.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:15 PM   #31
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here we go again
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:21 PM   #32
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Can we officially label ben as a troll yet?
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:42 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layman View Post
Can we officially label ben as a troll yet?
Got my vote.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:48 PM   #34
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Why in the hell do we have to have a thread each week about housing and the housing bubble?

Haven't we covered it all?
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:55 PM   #35
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With each news article, we need another "See, I told you so!"

When, of course, the news article does little to support the "sky is falling" premise, or does it on suspicious statistics.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:58 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layman View Post
Can we officially label ben as a troll yet?
Posts, and 36 replies later, no Ben, no rebuttal.


Troll!
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Old 09-21-2006, 08:04 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogue View Post
How many real estate price threads can one man make?

Because I think you're going for a record.
I think threads about the housing market threads are informative and educational; they spark productive debates as opposed to parody threads or ones about absolutely nothing, which we all know you hold the record for creating.


Last edited by benjaminetanyahoo; 09-21-2006 at 08:13 PM.
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Old 09-21-2006, 08:06 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layman View Post
Can we officially label ben as a troll yet?
I was working out at the gym therefore I couldn't post. At this point, I create the threads to spark informative and educational debate with a hidden antagonistic agenda. Lighten up my friend, you aren't losing your shirt...

Before, I was completely wrong and my statements about a forseable real estate decline in the metropolitan areas were laughed at; now, it isn't so far fetched. So I'm tagged a troll. Sour grapes much?

Last edited by benjaminetanyahoo; 09-21-2006 at 08:12 PM.
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Old 09-21-2006, 08:08 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HolyCrikey View Post
Why in the hell do we have to have a thread each week about housing and the housing bubble?

Haven't we covered it all?
With that arguement, shouldn't this whole forum be dead now since haven't everone cover everything about Subaru and everything else for that matter?
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Old 09-21-2006, 08:11 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imprezton View Post
With each news article, we need another "See, I told you so!"

When, of course, the news article does little to support the "sky is falling" premise, or does it on suspicious statistics.
No one have said the sky is falling. We're just saying one day, we can buy our house w/out crazy markups.
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Old 09-21-2006, 09:59 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benjaminetanyahoo View Post
I was working out at the gym therefore I couldn't post. At this point, I create the threads to spark informative and educational debate with a hidden antagonistic agenda.
Hardly either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by benjaminetanyahoo View Post
Lighten up my friend, you aren't losing your shirt...
Correct - far from it, despite your chicken little act.

Quote:
Originally Posted by benjaminetanyahoo View Post
Before, I was completely wrong and my statements about a forseable real estate decline in the metropolitan areas were laughed at; now, it isn't so far fetched. So I'm tagged a troll. Sour grapes much?
No, it's just tiresome.
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Old 10-26-2006, 11:05 AM   #42
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http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...herenot/9.html

^^^
Will you continue to be in denial?

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Old 10-26-2006, 11:15 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benjaminetanyahoo View Post
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...herenot/9.html

^^^
Will you continue to be in denial?

Denial? About what? Who said prices in those places was not over inflated? And the prices wouldn't drop/stabalize there?

I'll counter with:
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...est/index.html
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Old 10-26-2006, 11:20 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by docwhorocks View Post
Denial? About what? Who said prices in those places was not over inflated? And the prices wouldn't drop/stabalize there?

I'll counter with:
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...est/index.html

Looks like they have already taken a 25% haircut since just last year;

Quote:
Janet Roan, a Century 21 agent in Panama City, notes that two-bedroom beachfront condos are going for as little as $330,000 - down by more than $100,000 from 2005.
I guess if you bought this property last year for $430K it's still better than renting huh?
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Old 10-26-2006, 11:20 AM   #45
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What sucks is that homes are more about making money than they are a place to live anymore.

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Old 10-26-2006, 11:21 AM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benjaminetanyahoo View Post
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...herenot/9.html

^^^
Will you continue to be in denial?

I love how 7-10 of those are in CA... DUH!
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Old 10-26-2006, 11:31 AM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eye one View Post
Looks like they have already taken a 25% haircut since just last year;



I guess if you bought this property last year for $430K it's still better than renting huh?
If you bought a property last year in a hot market with the intention of moving in a year or two, or flipping the house; you = teh stupit. If you plan to live there a few years then maybe it's better than renting (many variables to consider in that scenario).
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Old 10-26-2006, 11:53 AM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobsen1 View Post
Yep, Rent would cost a hell of a lot more than that (for us)...
Rent in 1 year: $10,800
Lived in house for 2 years, so that means we saved 21,600, but if we lost the 8.2% we'd "lose" $21,730... Again, that's worst case, IF we were to sell which we aren't... Yes I know another %6 for commissions would come out of that too.
You only lose when you sell.
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Old 10-26-2006, 11:59 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benjaminetanyahoo View Post
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...herenot/9.html

^^^
Will you continue to be in denial?

I can tell you what's happening in my neighborhood. 3-4 months ago, there were signs in front of 20% of the houses. None of them were moving.

That's down to about 5% now. My guess is that the remaining 5% are fishermen holding out for the state record. And no, they aren't just being dropped off the market, I see people moving out and in.
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Old 10-26-2006, 12:02 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by docwhorocks View Post
If you bought a property last year in a hot market with the intention of moving in a year or two, or flipping the house; you = teh stupit. If you plan to live there a few years then maybe it's better than renting (many variables to consider in that scenario).
Losing $100k on a $430k investment is pretty stupid in just about any situation.
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